The same thirty years of returns, run in three different orders. Identical averages — very different outcomes. This shows how much has to go wrong before your plan stops working, and how much of that risk you can take back.
This applies guardrails: if your withdrawal drifts well above where it started, spending steps down about 10% and stays down until the portfolio recovers. If it drifts well below, spending steps up. It never falls below your essentials — and it only counts if you'd really do it.
Every scenario below uses the exact same thirty return figures — the only thing that changes is the order they arrive in. The averages are identical by construction.
This is arithmetic on the assumptions you enter, not a forecast. Nobody knows what returns will be or in what order. The purpose is not to predict an outcome — it is to show how much the order matters, and how much of that exposure you can remove. Bring it to the February call.
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